The pact that China has made with globalisation, trading huge external dependence for miraculous export growth, may be unravelling. The crisis in the West is hurting exports, and inflation and bubbles at home are creating unrest in the vital coastal regions. With a crucial contest for Chinese leadership in 2012, Beijing is involved in a crucial debate about the value of two competing models of development that will influence who leads the country and its future direction.
The latest edition of China Analysis explores this debate over China’s future development, and the role the debate plays in the contest for leadership in Beijing.
You can download the latest edition of China Analysis, published by Asia Centre and ECFR by clicking on this page: One or two Chinese Models?
Key themes that emerge include:
• The Chongqing model is an investment in the next wave of export-led growth by the mobilisation of inland Chinese assets. But a slowdown in international demand could make this investment a risky proposition.
• The Guangdong model involves a realignment of the Chinese economy away from export-driven GDP growth that is less capable of providing internal consumer demand or social welfare. Both are viewed as big issues that need resolving as the Chinese economy matures.
• Both models have high level proponents, ahead of the replacing of seven of the nine Politburo Standing Committee members (the top table of Chinese politics). This debate has consequently become as critical as the debate over internationalisation of China’s currency.
• If the international economic slowdown harms exports, the debate could become acrimonious, involving job displacement, lost subsidies and China’s future development.
This issue includes the following articles:
Chongqing and Guangdong: two conflicting models
The implications of the Chongqing Model for the reform of China’s legal system
The view from Hong Kong: Bo Xilai’s opportunism is not paying off
Chongqing: a model for a new economic and social policy?